Theory of Change
From Extraction to Regenerative Abundance
My Theory of Change presents neither a utopian fantasy nor a dystopian prediction. Rather, it outlines an evolutionary process already underway—a metamorphosis from an extractive adolescence to a regenerative maturity for human civilization.
The invitation is for a business leaders to become active participants in the process.
Adapt or Become Obsolete
Why Regeneration is the Future of Business
For 8,000 years, humanity has consumed like a caterpillar in its growth phase—extracting, expanding, and exhausting. But now, the game is changing. Regeneration is no longer a buzzword; it's an evolutionary imperative. Businesses that cling to extraction will struggle as resources dwindle and systems collapse. Those that embrace regeneration—building ecosystems, not empires—will thrive in the emerging Mycelial economy.
This isn't just about survival; it's about leading the next era of abundance. The question isn't whether this shift will happen. It’s whether your business will lead it—or get left behind.
The Developmental Context of Human Systems
Human consciousness and coordination systems have evolved through distinct phases throughout our existence, with each new layer transcending and including previous forms.
Our current transition represents not merely a change in tactics but an evolutionary leap comparable to previous momentous shifts in human development.
The Adolescent Phase of Humanity
For approximately 8,000 years, human civilization has operated within a Material consciousness framework—characterized by analysis, measurement, empire-building, and resource extraction. This adolescent phase served critical developmental purposes:
It enabled unprecedented technological innovation
It created complex social structures and global connections
It expanded human population and influence across the planet
It developed sophisticated knowledge systems and specialization
However, like all developmental phases, Material consciousness eventually reaches its inherent limitations.
The extractive paradigm that fueled human expansion now threatens the very systems upon which we depend. This is not a moral failure but a predictable evolutionary boundary.
The cycle of Empire and Our Current Position
Human civilizations follow a consistent pattern through seven phases: Foundation, Growth, Prosperity, Warning, Decline, Crisis, and Transition.
Our current global civilization appears to be navigating the Crisis/Transition phases, characterized by:
Elite concentration and declining productivity
Escalating complexity beyond institutional solving capacity
Resource scarcity and hoarding behaviors
System-wide instability and uncertainty
This pattern has repeated throughout history, but with a critical difference: this cycle is global in scale, offering nowhere else to go.
Simultaneously, we're hitting the evolutionary ceiling of Material consciousness precisely when we need new capacities to navigate unprecedented challenges.
The Metamorphosis Principle
Parallel Growth Rather Than Replacement
Like biological metamorphosis, societal transformation doesn't occur through slowing development (Net Zero) or degrowth. The caterpillar doesn't simply reduce its consumption—it continues consuming while simultaneously developing the imaginal cells that will eventually form the butterfly.
Similarly, our Theory of Change recognizes that:
Extractive systems cannot and will not voluntarily contract
No living system can "degrow" as an evolutionary strategy
Transformation occurs through parallel development of new systems
Therefore, extraction will continue for decades or even centuries while regenerative systems simultaneously develop and expand.
The Regenerative Acceleration Hypothesis
The core hypothesis of this Theory of Change is that regenerative systems will accelerate their development at a faster rate than extractive systems can expand. This acceleration will be driven by:
Increasing scarcity of extractable resources raising costs of extraction
Growing network effects of regenerative coordination systems
Evolutionary advantages of systems that enhance rather than deplete their resource base
Intrinsic alignment with emergent Mycelial consciousness
Eventually, this acceleration will create a crossover point where regeneration exceeds extraction, creating conditions for planetary abundance.
From Material to Mycelial Coordination
The Evolution of Coordination Systems
Human coordination has evolved through distinct phases:
Tribes (kinship, gift economies),
Institutions (hierarchies, rules),
Markets (exchange, contracts), and
Networks (distributed connections and resource distribution: global supply chains)
Each new form transcended and included previous forms rather than replacing them.
We are now witnessing the emergence of a fifth coordination system—what might be called Mycelial coordination—characterized by:
Decentralized bioregional regeneration
Systems sensing and responding across boundaries
Collaboration for whole-system health rather than competition
Distributed intelligence rather than centralized control
This emerging coordination system is evolutionarily coherent with the direction in which humanity appears to be developing.
From National Class-Based to Planetary Values-Based Society
The transition from Material to Mycelial coordination enables a parallel transition in social organization. Rather than organizing primarily through national boundaries and class hierarchies, emergent social structures increasingly organize through:
Bioregional interdependencies
Shared values and purpose
Contribution to ecosystem health
Participation in regenerative systems
This transition doesn't require dismantling or protesting against existing structures. Instead, new social arrangements that better serve human needs in a resource-constrained world will naturally attract increasing participation.
Evolutionary Selection and Participation
Natural Selection in Social Systems
In natural systems, organisms that cannot adapt to changing environments eventually face extinction. Similarly, organizations and individuals that remain exclusively tied to extractive approaches will find themselves increasingly excluded from resources as those resources become scarcer and as regenerative alternatives become more accessible.
This is not a moral judgment but an evolutionary observation: systems that deplete their resource base eventually collapse, while systems that regenerate their foundations thrive.
The Choice of Conscious Participation
Unlike previous evolutionary transitions which happened to us, this metamorphosis offers the unprecedented opportunity to participate consciously in our own transformation. The core choice for individuals and organizations is whether to:
Remain tied to caterpillar (extractive) thinking and face increasing resource constraints
Align with butterfly (regenerative) emergence and help shape what comes next
This conscious participation creates meaning amidst disruption and offers the possibility to navigate the transition with reduced suffering and increased flourishing.
Implications for Business: Becoming Evolutionarily Fit
For business leaders, this Theory of Change signals a fundamental shift in how value is created and sustained. It necessitates a slow, deliberate transition from a culture of extraction to a culture of regeneration. This is not a simple matter of tweaking existing practices; it requires rewiring the operating system of the organization.
Since these skills are not taught in traditional business schools, the most effective pathway to mastery is through deep engagement with communities and initiatives already steeped in regenerative practices. This immersive learning is the foundation for becoming what we call "Evolutionarily Fit"—capable of not just surviving disruption but transcending it.
The 90-Day Evolutionary Fitness Blueprint
This is why we developed the 90-Day Evolutionary Fitness Blueprint, which offers a roadmap for those who feel the hollowness of ESG and understand that shareholder primacy is a dead end. This Blueprint helps businesses become active participants in shaping a higher-order ecosystem, one that's evolutionarily coherent. Where success is measured by contribution to the overall health of interconnected living systems.
This isn't corporate self-help. It's a covenant with life itself. A 3.5-billion-year experiment beckons. You can learn more about the Blueprint here.
Implementation Pathways
Creating New Rather Than Reforming Old
This Theory of Change explicitly recognizes that we cannot "stop" existing processes or "reform" existing institutions at scale.
Just as we cannot stop the sun from rising, we cannot halt climate change or prevent the dissolution of systems reaching their natural endpoints.
Instead, implementation focuses on creating viable alternatives that demonstrate regenerative capacity. Specifically:
Developing bioregional resilience alongside global supply chains (industry partnering with citizen-led regenerative initiatives)
Building regenerative financial instruments alongside traditional markets (the emerging ReFi—Regenerative Finance—initiatives)
Creating distributed governance alongside centralized institutions (all the work done in the Commons and Subsidiarity movements)
Cultivating reciprocal relationships alongside transactional ones (along the lines of multi-capital returns)
The goal is not to convert extractive systems but to build parallel capacity that can eventually support broader social participation.
Three Horizons of Development
Implementing this Theory of Change requires simultaneous attention to three horizons:
Horizon 1 (Present): Working within existing systems to reduce harm while harvesting resources needed for transition
Horizon 2 (Emerging): Developing transitional structures and experiments that bridge old and new
Horizon 3 (Future): Creating regenerative systems aligned with Mycelial consciousness
Organizations and communities that balance all three horizons will be best positioned to thrive through the metamorphosis.
Conclusion: The Evolutionary Invitation
This Theory of Change presents neither a utopian fantasy nor a dystopian prediction. Rather, it outlines an evolutionary process already underway—a metamorphosis from an extractive adolescence to a regenerative maturity for human civilization.
The transition will not be easy or linear. It will involve dissolution, emergence, and repeated cycles of creative destruction. Yet it also represents humanity's greatest opportunity to consciously participate in our own evolution.
Those who choose to engage in this process will not only increase their chances of thriving through disruption but will also help shape a future where planetary abundance supports a values-based global society.
The invitation is open. The caterpillar is already dissolving. The butterfly is already forming. The choice is yours.
Let's Complete Your EvFit™ Assessment
This assessment is not about judgment, but about evolutionary fitness in a rapidly changing environment.
We encourage you to set aside everything you may know about "sustainability" and to answer as forthrightly as possible.
For each question, select the statement which feels MOST accurate for your organization.
There are no right or wrong answers.
